The Road to Hell: The Eastern Mediterranean on the Brink

Since the Turkish-Libyan maritime memorandum was signed in November 2019 and entered into force the following month, tensions over maritime boundaries and sovereign rights in the Eastern Mediterranean have remained a persistent source of friction between Greece and Turkey. The latest developments in Libya have added a dangerous new dimension to an already volatile situation. Seven years after the agreement was signed, Libya’s competing political authorities the leftovers of Gaddafi’s regime are still struggling to overcome the divisions, while armed bandits and rival power centres continue to complicate the search for stability.

The Greek government has made a serious strategic miscalculation. For years, Athens has sought to contain the consequences of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum through diplomacy, international legal arguments and partnerships with European and regional allies. Yet the problem has never been solely the legal validity of the agreement. It is also the possibility that an arrangement Greece considers unlawful may nevertheless be used to challenge Greek activities at sea and create facts on the ground. The recent approval of the memorandum by Libya’s eastern-based House of Representatives has brought that danger into sharper focus. The government must now answer difficult questions about its strategy, its preparedness and its credibility. The political consequences could be considerable. The fall is near before the elections.

The Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), the proposed electricity link between Greece and Cyprus, with a planned extension to Israel, adds another strategic dimension to the dispute. What should be an infrastructure project serving energy security and regional connectivity has become entangled in competing maritime claims. Its future may therefore depend not only on engineering, financing and commercial viability, but also on the ability of governments to prevent geopolitical rivalry from obstructing its implementation. Every delay and every confrontation at sea risks turning an economic project into another test of national resolve.

Appealing to International Law has Never Solved any Problems

We are approaching a dangerous crossroads. Diplomacy has not resolved the underlying disputes, and there won't be any sufficient channels to prevent a serious confrontation. War is not inevitable not even USA or the EU will be able to stop the coflict. The blow from the Greeks will be fierce.

Any further escalation could engulf Egypt, Israel, Syria, and Lebanon, while instability risks spreading into Iraq, the Arabian Peninsula, and North Africa. In an already fractured regional order, the consequences could be devastating. This is especially critical given reports concerning a potential second phase of conflict involving Iran, which some analysts suggest the United States may plan following its upcoming elections.

Turkey is Poised to Venture into Forbidden Waters

One Step before the disaster, and here is where the good stuff starts. Turkey knows very well:
1. It will be the first time since the WWI that the Turks will fight against a regular army. And once again the Eastern Question (the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire, and now of the Turkish nation as its heir regime) has not been resolved and is back on the table.
2. The Kurds, in all four neighboring countries and despite their internal diversity, are still dreaming of one or two independent countries, not just autonomous regions.
3. Russia, the successor to the Soviet Union, is undermining NATO’s eastern flank while the Russia-Ukraine War is still going on.
4. The neighboring Arab states are also waiting for a chance to undermine the Turkish Islamist “godfather,” since the Turks, Mongol origin, are not Arabs.
5. Israel, despite decades of friendship and some help to Turkey during the invasion of Cyprus and the Armenian conflict, now sees that the two countries will be enemies for the foreseeable future.

The USA and A Sense of Wonder (Van Morisson) for Turkey

Almost two weeks ago, Marco Rubio visited Greece and gave a speech about democracy, values, and respect. The backdrop was the eternal symbol of Western culture and civilization. With this speech, he enhanced his image as a future leader of the West. This raises a few questions. Can anyone use such a significant monument to promote their own political future? Is it a disgrace for the Greek government to take part in this kind of show? And does Rubio really believe what he is saying?
The USA doesn’t even send third-class clerks as ambassadors and administrators to the Eastern Mediterranean, but rather businessmen, historically uneducated ones, like Barrack and Boulos (Barrack has also faced prosecution in the USA). Because they think that, as after WWII, the region is an easy playground in which to manipulate corrupt politicians and, yes, governments. But times have changed. With the massive spread of information, we Greeks know very well who was behind the Turkish invasion of Cyprus and the Imia crisis, and who was on the American Embassy’s payroll, especially after 1949 and the end of the Communist insurrection.
We also know that the American base in Greece will try to disengage and disrupt the Hellenic Forces in the event of an upcoming war. But we must not forget that the same thing happened during the Smyrna catastrophe in 1922. And we will never forget, USA and allies.

Everything happens for a Reason, the Sooner the Better

Now is the great opportunity to extend our 12 miles everywhere across all our seas and to collaborate with Egypt on expanding our shared maritime boundaries. Also to remind Greek expatriates and philhellenes that our country is not a playground for uncivilized and uneducated leaders to push us around. The US elections are in the coming days.

For all of our great wars, the Greeks were alone... we remember and celebrate—the only nation in the world—the start of the war, not the end of it. We remember...

On 28 October, Greece commemorates the historic “No” to Mussolini’s ultimatum in 1940, the refusal that preceded Italy’s invasion and Greece’s entry into the Second World War. The anniversary is a reminder of the courage required to defend national sovereignty when confronted with coercion. But it is also a reminder that courage must be accompanied by foresight, strategic preparation and political responsibility. The lesson of history is not that war must come, but that peace cannot be preserved by ignoring danger—or by assuming that the next crisis will somehow resolve itself.

End of Part 02, to be continued...